Elopak Says Aseptic Carton Board Supply Stays Tight Into 2027 After The Longview Mill Shutdown

The one question I keep putting to packaging buyers is this. Who makes your board? Very few can answer it, and in 2026 that gap has a price.

One mill in Longview, Washington makes about 300,000 tonnes of board for cartons and cups a year. It has been shut since 26 May. Elopak has now told the market its board supply stays tight through the rest of 2026. It may stay tight into 2027.

One site, a whole year of tight supply

Nippon Dynawave Packaging runs the Longview mill. A tank holding 900,000 gallons of white liquor imploded there on 26 May. Eleven workers were killed and eight were hurt. The mill has been idle ever since.

Nippon Paper bought the site from Weyerhaeuser in 2016 for $285 million. It sells board under the Structure-Pak and Structure-Serv names. Crews began removing the failed tank and two others on 17 August. No restart date has been given.

What Elopak told the market

Elopak set out its second quarter on 18 August. Sales rose 4.9% to 303.9 million euros, and carton and closure sales rose 8.4%. Trading profit was 45.0 million euros, on a margin of 14.8%. A year earlier that margin was 15.3%.

The group said board supply would stay tight through the rest of 2026, and maybe into 2027. It named the Longview event as the cause. Input costs took 4.3 million euros off the quarter. Elopak has added surcharges to claw some of that back.

Demand kept climbing while supply froze

The order side did not pause. Roll Fed sales across Europe, the Middle East and Africa rose 16.4%, on new wins in Poland and Ukraine. Pure-Pak grew in UHT milk, mainly in Germany. In the Americas, carton and closure sales rose 11.9% and the margin moved up to 22.9%.

So the demand is there. The paper behind it is the pinch point. Elopak has put $109 million into its new US plant so far, with $19 million left for three lines. Lines are far easier to add than mills.

Why board sets the ceiling

Most people in this trade count filling machines. Cartons carry 66.5% of world aseptic volume, so the board mill is the real gate. Zenith puts total aseptic volume at 148.4 billion litres in 2025, or 344 billion packs.

Liquid packaging board comes from a short list of mills. It needs a bleached kraft base, tight thickness control and food safety sign-off. A converter cannot drop in a normal carton grade instead. That is why one mill stopping moves a global chain.

The mix riding on that board keeps shifting. Zenith puts UHT white milk at 52.7 billion litres in 2025. Beverages reached 60.2 billion litres and passed milk during the review period. Large PET hit 25.9 billion litres and is now the biggest aseptic drinks format.

The state has now weighed in

Washington's Department of Ecology cited the site for 35 breaches on 26 August. Most relate to the white liquor that spread across the site and reached the Columbia River. The firm has 30 days to reply. The state has two years to act.

Other reviews run alongside it. The US Chemical Safety Board expects an update by the end of September. The state labour agency must report by 22 November. Each of those dates is a fresh chance of a longer stoppage.

What buyers should do now

Ask your carton maker which mill makes your grade. Ask what the second source is. Ask how long a switch takes, and who pays for the trial runs. Most buyers find they have one mill and no plan.

Price your risk in litres. Model a 20% cut in board for one quarter. See which brands you would drop first. Talk to your filler about a second pack shape. Book board earlier than you think you need to. Put a break clause in the surcharge terms.

The shutdown is one event. What matters more is how much board sits behind every litre packed aseptically, and where that board is made. Cartons still carry two thirds of world aseptic volume, so that answer decides who can grow. Zenith's Global Aseptic Packaging Market Report 2026 maps 39 markets by category, pack type and pack size. A free sample is on the page.