US Cheese Exports Rise 9% To 59,007 Tonnes: Mexico And The Americas Supplied All Of August's Growth

I had this filed as another growth month. Then I added up the markets that fell. US cheese exports came to 59,007 tonnes in August, up 9%. Three regions in the Americas supplied more than the whole increase.

What the August trade figures show

The US Dairy Export Council published the August trade data on 7 October. Cheese shipments reached 59,007 tonnes. That is 9% above August last year, an increase of 5,113 tonnes. Dairy exports as a whole rose 2% on a milk solids basis. That followed a 4% fall across June and July. Export value rose 10% to 919 million dollars.

August was also the first month since March that cheese shipments came in below 60,000 tonnes. Five straight months had cleared that mark. One month does not make a trend. That line is worth watching every month from here.

Three regions supplied all the growth

Mexico remains the largest buyer. It took 19% more cheese than a year earlier, an extra 3,095 tonnes. South America rose 35%, or 1,035 tonnes. Central America rose 17%, or 1,009 tonnes. Those three added 5,139 tonnes between them, slightly more than the whole net gain of 5,113 tonnes.

The arithmetic matters. Every other region was a net drag on the month. The growth did not come from a broad lift in world demand. It came from three neighbouring markets on one freight route.

South Korea turned down for the first time since 2025

South Korea is the second largest market for American cheese. It fell 12% in August, down 935 tonnes, its first drop since April 2025. The Middle East and North Africa fell 23%, down 721 tonnes. Australia fell 10%, down 433 tonnes.

Those three declines removed 2,089 tonnes between them. Korea had been one of the clearest wins of the past two years. In the first half of 2026 it was running 36% ahead. A single month does not undo that. It does change the slope of the forecast line.

The vats keep running

Supply is not the constraint. The USDA put August cheese output at 1.245 billion pounds, about 565,000 tonnes. That is 1.4% above August last year. Output for the first eight months reached 10.00 billion pounds, about 4.54 million tonnes, up 2.3%. On those two figures, exports took about one pound in every ten that American vats made in August.

Export demand is the valve on a cheese market. Home sales move slowly and cold stores only absorb so much. When a vat runs every day, the extra tonnes have to leave the country or sit on a shelf.

More capacity is still arriving. The International Dairy Foods Association counts 14.4 billion dollars across 77 projects in 21 states. Most of that money went into cheese. The plants coming up need a buyer for every extra tonne.

The price signal reads heavy

USDA market reporters covered the week of 5 October. Forty pound blocks closed on the Friday at 1.3850 dollars a pound, with a weekly average of 1.3480. Barrels held at 1.4525 all week. Barrels traded above blocks every day of that week, which is the wrong way round. Reporters called stocks of bulk and spot cheese heavy and the tone steady to weak.

Cold storage held 81,752 thousand pounds on 5 October. Western plants reported premium export prices into Asia and Mexico. A few western sites took downtime on mozzarella. Eastern plants said they were not chasing export business at all.

What this means for the market

The world cheese trade is still growing. American exports rose 18% in 2024 to 510,270 tonnes and 20% in 2025 to 612,671 tonnes. The new American plants are being built for a world market that took 612,671 tonnes of US cheese last year. That market is now growing in one region and shrinking in two.

Three things follow for anyone judging this market. Latin America is where the next American tonne goes. EU and Oceania sellers are losing ground there rather than in Asia. Korea shows how fast a strong market can flatten. An entrant should test whether Latin America can absorb what Asia has stopped taking.

One month rarely moves a trade picture by itself. What matters is whether the same countries keep buying as the new plants come up. Our Global Cheese Database 2026 covers 48 country markets. It carries production, imports, exports and consumption in tonnes for 39 cheese types. Actuals run to 2025 and forecasts reach 2030. The waitlist page includes a free sample country chapter.