US Parmesan Output Jumps 25.9% While Cheddar Slips: Italian Cheese Takes Four In Five Pounds Of Growth

Most of the coverage reads the August cheese print as growth. I read it as a change in which cheese. Parmesan rose 25.9% in the month while cheddar fell.

The August print, type by type

The USDA published its monthly dairy output figures on 5 October. US cheese output in August came to 1.245 billion pounds, or about 565,000 tonnes. That is 1.4% above August last year. Italian types rose 3.7% to 541.3 million pounds while American types fell 0.9% to 477.0 million. Cheddar alone fell 0.9% to 325.9 million pounds. Mozzarella rose 1.8% to 420.9 million. Parmesan rose 25.9% to 52.8 million pounds, about 23,950 tonnes.

Parmesan has run hot for three months

One month proves nothing. Three do. Parmesan output rose 12.2% in June, 25.3% in July and 25.9% in August. In August alone it added about 10.9 million pounds against the same month last year. Provolone turned up too, by 5.3% after a weak July. Ricotta was flat at 20.5 million pounds. The lift sits in the hard grating cheeses rather than across Italian types as a whole. Gouda rose 3.3% and Swiss 1.9%, both from small bases.

Where eight months of growth actually went

The eight-month table is where the shape shows. US cheese output ran to 10.00 billion pounds from January to August, up 2.3%. That is about 4.54 million tonnes. Italian types reached 4.34 billion pounds, up 4.2%. American types came in at 3.87 billion, down 0.1%. Cheddar was down 0.2% at 2.68 billion. Italian types supplied about 79,000 of the 102,000 tonnes added. That is close to four pounds in every five.

American types have stopped growing

Cheddar and the American block types have gone sideways for eight months. That matters because this is where much of the money has gone. The International Dairy Foods Association now counts 14.4 billion dollars across 77 projects in 21 states. Michael Dykes, who leads the body, gave that count on 2 October. He also said cheese and butter are in oversupply. So the spending and the growth are pointing at different cheeses.

What is pulling the hard Italian cheeses

Two forces are worth separating. The first is price at the border. EU food sent to the United States has paid a 15% duty since the 2025 framework. Parmigiano Reggiano and Grana Padano are both caught. A US grating cheese made at home does not pay it. The second is foodservice demand for grated and shredded cheese, which runs on pizza and pasta. Dry whey output rose 8.2% in August. Hard Italian vats throw a lot of whey, so the two move together.

The mix shift reaches well beyond the United States. Italy, Argentina and Australia all run hard-cheese vats aimed at the same grating demand. Fonterra has put capacity into frozen mozzarella for pizza buyers in Asia. Each of those trades carries its own milk price and its own set of buyers. A maker that can sell into two of them has a far easier year. Freight and shelf life also differ by type. A hard cheese travels cheaply and keeps for months, so it can chase demand a long way from the vat. Fresh and soft types cannot, which is why they stay close to the milk.

What this means for the market

A national cheese number is the wrong unit for an entry call. The US table grew 2.3% and its biggest type shrank. Market appeal here belongs to hard Italian cheese and to the kitchens that grate it. Position in the market has moved with it. Makers set up for 40 pound cheddar blocks are chasing a flat pool. Those with grating and shredding lines are not. Any entrant should price the cheese type before the country. Ask which types are actually growing and who holds them. Then ask what a buyer pays to switch.

We will be watching whether hard Italian cheese keeps taking the growth into 2027. The same split is showing up in other large markets. A single national figure hides it completely. Our Global Cheese Database 2026 splits each market into 39 cheese types. It carries output, imports, exports and demand in tonnes. The count runs to 48 countries, with 2025 actuals and forecasts to 2030. The waitlist carries a free sample country chapter.