UK Cheese Supplies Fall 6,900 Tonnes As Exports Hit A Q2 Record: Cheddar Milk Use Down 14 Million Litres

If Britain were on my shortlist this week, I would not start with demand. I would start with the export lane. It carried 8,000 more tonnes of British cheese out of the country in one quarter.

What AHDB counted in the second quarter

AHDB published its quarterly supply figures on 8 October. Milk deliveries ran at 4,164 million litres in April to June, down 1.1% on a year earlier. Cheese production fell 2.3%, or 3,200 tonnes. Available cheese supplies fell 3.3%, or 6,900 tonnes. AHDB defines available supplies as production plus imports minus exports. So the figure measures what the home market can actually buy. Exports rose 15.3%, or 8,000 tonnes. That is an all-time high for a second quarter. Imports rose 3.6%, or 4,300 tonnes. Butter went the same way, with available supplies down 7.6% and production down 4.3%.

The export lane removed more than the lost output

The four numbers above settle the cause between them. Production took 3,200 tonnes out of the pool. Imports put 4,300 tonnes back in. Exports took 8,000 tonnes out. Add the three and the shelf is 6,900 tonnes shorter, which is exactly what AHDB reported. The export lane removed more British cheese than the production fall did. Imports more than covered the output drop on their own. They could not cover the shipments as well. A reader who treats a 3.3% supply fall as weak British demand has the story backwards.

Cheddar is carrying the fall

Defra publishes the milk utilisation series for England and Wales, and the August figures landed on 1 October. Dairies took 1,167.0 million litres of milk in the month. Of that, 366.6 million litres went into cheese, against 388.1 million litres in August 2025. Milk into Cheddar fell from 268.5 million litres to 254.4 million. That is 14.1 million litres less in a single month. Cheddar was 69% of cheese output in August. Long life territorials held flat at 20.8 million litres. Blue vein rose slightly to 6.8 million. Cheese output for the month came to 39.2 thousand tonnes, with the rolling twelve month average at 42.0 thousand tonnes.

The record sits in tonnes rather than in money

AHDB reported the first half separately in September. Exports of cheese and curd reached 116,000 tonnes, an all-time high, up 15.4%. The value came to 461 million pounds, down 4.6%. Put the two together and the average value works out near 3,970 pounds a tonne. A year earlier it was roughly 4,800 pounds. That is a derived figure, and mix can move it a long way. Cheese and curd travel in the same trade code. A shift toward bulk changes the average without any single price moving. It does say that British cheese won volume on terms the value figure did not follow.

Who fills the British shelf

The import side is now doing real work. Imports added 7,800 tonnes across the first half, up 3.4%. Cheese and curd was the largest single dairy import block by value at 1,090 million pounds. On the export side, AHDB named Belgium, France and the Netherlands as the EU markets behind the growth. Libya, Bahrain, China and Saudi Arabia carried it outside the bloc. So the same product is moving in both directions in larger volumes than before. British milk is tight, and two sets of buyers are bidding for what comes out of the vat.

The quarter sits inside a longer squeeze. Milk deliveries have now fallen for several quarters running. Butter lost a larger share of its supply than cheese did. Processors chose cheese over cream on the margins available.

What this means for market entry

Britain now reads as two markets in one country. Market appeal here is a type question rather than a national one. The Cheddar block is giving up milk while territorials and blue vein hold. Competitive position has moved toward whoever can serve the export lane. The lane set a record while the home shelf shrank. A domestic buyer is bidding against it for a smaller pool. An entrant should test three things before it prices anything. Whether the export record is contracted or opportunistic. Which cheese type the lost milk came out of. Whether the import lane has room left at the price the shelf will pay.

This raises a wider question. How much of a national cheese figure is set by trade rather than demand? That is one of the areas we are tracking across cheese markets in our 2026 research. Our Global Cheese Database 2026 carries production, imports, exports and consumption in tonnes for 39 cheese types across 48 markets. The UK is modelled separately from the EU-27. Actuals run to 2025 and forecasts reach 2030. Waitlist members get a free sample country chapter.